Shootin’ From the Don’t
I love playing craps.
It is the most unique game in the casino. Complex, loud, social, exciting and quick. The average game has 15-20 people involved and engaged at different levels, wagering on different outcomes and hoping for different numbers. Craps is also unique from blackjack, poker and most other games given how really independent a player’s bets are from his control over the outcome of the game. Specifically, there is no ‘book’ which tells you when to hit or stay. You can’t count cards. And forget about bluffing or check-raising. All you have are the dice and by definition, a given roll is random and has no relation to the previous roll or the next roll.
Clearly, Craps is a game where the player has very little control of the game. On the other hand, no other game allows for more control over betting — there are different outcomes, timing, dollar values and a host of other factors players can wager on. In addition to the social aspects of the game, the ability to think, maneuver, adjust and calculate in a risky atmosphere made craps very compelling to me. And as I started to think about blogging, I felt the strategy I had developed in craps is one that I will take into the startup world – positioning myself at the most optimal points possible but still taking risks in hopes of great success.
Understanding Craps
(Following is a quick craps primer: Craps is actually a pretty straightforward game. There are two dice which are rolled by various players. Two dice combined can roll every number 2 through 12 with varying probabilities. Each game of craps starts with an initial roll of the dice. Before the first roll of the game [the "come out"] roll, players can either bet “pass” or “don’t pass” which both pay even money. Let’s assume you bet “pass.” On the first roll, if a 2, 3 or 12 come – you lose your money immediately. If a 7 or 11 come – you win m
oney immediately. That’s the really easy part. Next is slightly more complex. If, on the first roll, any of the remaining numbers come (4,5,6,8,9,10), then your bet ‘transforms.’ You are now betting that whichever number rolled WILL roll again before a 7 rolls. To use the lingo, the number which rolled on the first roll (assuming its not 2,3,12,7,11) is called the ‘point’ number. The pass bet you placed is that the ‘point’ will come again before a 7 rolls. If you roll the point before a 7, you rolled a ‘winner.’ If you roll a 7, you have just ‘crapped out.’ Note: there are tons of other things you can bet on during a game but this is the basic, 101, game. For more detailed information, click here)
If you know craps or you just read the above, you probably identified that the entire game rotates around a 7 being rolled. You may have also identified that a 7 is the MOST likely roll of the dice (6/36 ways.) So after the come out roll, your “pass” bet is inherently at a disadvantage as the most likely roll makes you lose. Despite this disadvantaged position, betting on the “pass” is THE most common bet made in craps. In addition, people lay money on top of the numbers individually and a host of other bets… ALL of which are taken by the house when a 7 comes.
So the house wins. Well, no surprise there! You’re in a casino! But craps is an interesting and complex game which also allows you to bet in several directions, including with the house itself. The “don’t pass” bet is almost EXACTLY the opposite of the “pass” bet. And so, now, post-initial roll, you are betting with the house! If a 7 comes, you win! The bet is actually so advantaged that the house will let you pick it up at any point during the game.
Now craps, like life or startups, is a game which ebbs and flows. Tables can be cold and then turn hot instantaneously. Others are just cold. Most people walk in, bet on the “pass” and all of the additional ‘inside numbers.’ If they happen to bet on a hot roller, they make 5-10x their money. But if they hit a few 7s, they’re gone. These are like dotcoms, not real businesses. In fact, my friends and I refer to hot rolls as ‘internet bubbles’ given how crazy the table gets and how much money people wager right before the shooter craps out. However, We recognize that hitting these streaks are important and the whole name of the game is sticking around long enough in order to find something that is working and take advantage of it.
The “Don’t”
So we bet on the “don’t” and are typically pretty unpopular (we’re betting with the house and against the table.) But then we do something weird, we bet on inside numbers coming as well (which pay above 1:1 odds and lose if a 7 comes.) In a situation where there is a lot of crapping out, we typically break even or lose a little bit of money. On the other hand, if we happen to hit a hot roller. We profit very handsomely (3-5x.) And given we can stick around more often since we rarely lose a LOT of money quickly, we have higher chances of hitting that hot roller.
We’re definitely taking risk. There are days I’ve left the casino with nothing. But given the complete lack of control over the dice, we are taking a calculated risk and putting ourselves in the best position for success in an otherwise unpredictable and potentially dangerous situation. And of course we’ll still lose at the end of the day (casinos are businesses, after all) but I’m sure we outperform everyone else at the table. (note: do not run out to your local casino to try this strategy, over the long run, I’m sure the house still wins.)
And while outperforming everyone is great, The best part about this strategy is when I finally get the dice in my hands. Maybe its the false sense of control or the feeling of being able to do something to change the outcome. But when we have a great roll on our own, our bets optimized and we’re throwing out each winning roll, it’s just thrilling. Given our bets on the “don’t pass”… it’s frowned upon to roll. I typically do it with passion though. And the term dealers have given it? ”Shootin’ from the Don’t”
Its not a perfect analogy but as I thought about what to title this blog, I found it incredibly fitting. Having done my best to ‘position’ myself well to take a leap, I’m now in a risky position. All I can do is think, calculate, optimize, work hard and make sure to take advantage of any ‘hot rolls’ that come my way. As an aspiring entrepreneur, I can’t control the outcome of a clients decision or the regulation in my industry. But I can always put my best foot forward – with deep thought, analysis and of course, action. And to me, that’s the only way to play.
I’m shootin’ from the don’t.
